With the exception of 2007 (when I was stuck toiling away on a cruise ship) I've sat through the 4+ hour marathon that is the Oscars every year since 2001. I don't ogle the fashion. I just love to see the show. See the first time winners struggle to find the words...see the smug previous winners act as though they walk on water. Its a great time.
This year Hugh Jackman is hosting. Expect him to sing. And dance. and crack jokes given to him by funnier people (I heard Ricky Gervais gave him some material). I will be satisfied if he throws at least one of his former co-stars under the bus (I'm rooting for Christian Bale jokes, but I'll bet on Nicole Kidman jokes).
Its killed me that since I began to gobble up every bit on online Oscar buzz, I've not worked in an office that has an Oscar pool. I'm convinced I would clean up.
Anyway here are my guesses for each of the awards to be handed out on Sunday:
Lets start out with the three categories that absolutely no one cares about except for the nominees. You'd be better off picking the over/under on how far from the stage the eventual winners will be seated.
My predicitions for winners will be in bold (EDIT: I just realized that the bold doesn't show up well at all against the black background, so I'm going to change the color of the my picks to red as well as keep them bold). The films I've actually seen are designated with a "-"
Best Short Film, Live Action
Nominees:
Auf der Strecke (On The Line)(2007): Reto Caffi
Manon sur le bitume (Manon on the Asphalt)(2007): Elizabeth Marre, Olivier Pont
New Boy (2007): Steph Green, Tamara Anghie
Grisen (The Pig) (2008): Tivi Magnusson, Dorthe Warnø Høgh
Spielzeugland (Toyland) (2007): Jochen Alexander Freydank
At the 2004 Oscars, one of the nominees was a film called Most. It was co-written/produced by one William Zabka, 80's high school bully extraordinaire. Alas the former Cobra Kai could not take it down, and that's the most exciting this category has ever been.
Spielzeugland (Toyland) is about the Holocaust. Ship it. Print.
Best Short Film, Animated
Nominees:
La Maison en Petits Cubes (Pieces of Love): Kunio Kato
Ubornaya istoriya - lyubovnaya istoriya (Lavatory Lovestory) (2007): Konstantin Bronzit
Oktapodi (2007): Emud Mokhberi, Thierry Marchand
-Presto (2008): Doug Sweetland
-This Way Up (2008): Alan Smith, Adam Foulkes
Presto was the Pixar short that ran before Wall*E. These used to be money, but they haven't won since For the Birds in 2002 (it ran before Monsters Inc.). Got to peep This Way Up on iTunes last month, and I'm going on a limb for this one.
Best Documentary, Short Subjects
Nominees:
The Conscience of Nhem En (2008): Steven Okazaki
The Final Inch (2008): Irene Taylor Brodsky, Tom Grant
Smile Pinki (2008): Megan Mylan
The Witness from the Balcony of Room 306 (2008): Adam Pertofsky, Margaret Hyde
Haven't seen any of these, but my pick is a description of the assassination of MLK from someone who was on the titular balcony. If its halfway well shot its in the bag.
Best Documentary, Features
Nominees:
The Betrayal - Nerakhoon (2008): Ellen Kuras, Thavisouk Phrasavath
Encounters at the End of the World (2007): Werner Herzog, Henry Kaiser
The Garden (2008/I): Scott Hamilton Kennedy
-Man on Wire (2008): James Marsh, Simon Chinn
Trouble the Water (2008): Tia Lessin, Carl Deal
Man on Wire is killing at every major award show. Trouble the Water is the one on this list I most want to see (I ♥ you NOLA). And I just received Encounters at the End of the World from Netflix yesterday (if its even half as good as Herzog's last documentary Grizzly Man, I will be satisfied.
Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
Nominees:
Der Baader Meinhof Komplex (2008)(Germany)
Entre les murs (The Class)(2008)(France)
Revanche (2008)(Austria)
Okuribito (Departures)(2008)(Japan)
Vals Im Bashir (Waltz with Bashir)(2008)(Israel)
Its a close race b/t The Class and Waltz with Bashir. The Class won the Palme d'Or at Cannes. I picked the one that one the Golden Globe (not that those awards have ANY bearing on these), but the trailer for Bashir is much cooler.
Best Animated Feature Film of the Year
Nominees:
Bolt (2008): Chris Williams, Byron Howard
-Kung Fu Panda (2008): John Stevenson, Mark Osborne
-WALL·E (2008): Andrew Stanton
I subscribe to the argument that Wall*E was very much in the running for a Best Picture nomination, so this category is no contest (I would have given the noms for the Reader and Frost/Nixon to Wall*E and the Dark Knight).
Best Achievement in Visual Effects
Nominees:
-The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008): Eric Barba, Steve Preeg, Burt Dalton, Craig Barron
-The Dark Knight (2008): Nick Davis, Chris Corbould, Timothy Webber, Paul J. Franklin
-Iron Man (2008): John Nelson, Ben Snow, Daniel Sudick, Shane Mahan
Actually a tougher category to call despite there being so few nominees. The Dark Knight featured more practical effects than CGI so that rounds out the bottom. It becomes a choice b/t a movie driven by effects (Iron Man) and one that depends on them heavily but to a subtle result (Button). I'm going with the Forrest Gump rip-off.
Best Achievement in Sound Editing
Nominees:
-The Dark Knight (2008): Richard King
-Iron Man (2008): Frank E. Eulner, Christopher Boyes
-Slumdog Millionaire (2008): Tom Sayers
-WALL·E (2008): Ben Burtt, Matthew Wood
-Wanted (2008): Wylie Stateman
I love how every awards predictor has to define this category along with the other. Sound editing aka Sound design. Its all about creating sounds. I gotta go with the those cute robots.
Best Achievement in Sound
Nominees:
-The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008): David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce, Mark Weingarten
-The Dark Knight (2008): Ed Novick, Lora Hirschberg, Gary Rizzo
-Slumdog Millionaire (2008): Ian Tapp, Richard Pryke, Resul Pookutty
-WALL·E (2008): Tom Myers, Michael Semanick, Ben Burtt
-Wanted (2008): Chris Jenkins, Frank A. Montaño, Petr Forejt
Achievement in Sound aka Sound "Mixing." Its all about balancing your noise with your score, and your dialogue. Usually I'd pick the Sound categories to go to the same film, but I gotta go w/ TDK. And I think this is the last category I'll be picking Slumdog Millionaire to lose.
Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song
Nominees:
-Slumdog Millionaire (2008): A.R. Rahman, Gulzar("Jai Ho")
-Slumdog Millionaire (2008): A.R. Rahman, Maya Arulpragasam("O Saya")
-WALL·E (2008): Peter Gabriel, Thomas Newman("Down to Earth")
Don't understand why Bruce Springsteen's song from The Wrestler didn't make the cut here. But Early on it looked like that lovely (see also putrid) song from Bolt by Miley Cyrus & John Travolta was going to be in the running. Now I know this category allows for incredible statements like "Alfred Hitchcock and Federico Fellini never won Oscars, but Eminem and Three Six Mafia have." But having to even think much less say Miley Cyrus Oscar winner makes me dry-heave. This song and its corresponding dance number were awesome.
Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score
Nominees:
-The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008): Alexandre Desplat
-Defiance (2008): James Newton Howard
-Milk (2008): Danny Elfman
-Slumdog Millionaire (2008): A.R. Rahman
-WALL·E (2008): Thomas Newman
Its a travesty that Howard and Zimmer got snubbed here for their incredible work in The Dark Knight, but this award has always belonged to Slumdog Millionaire.
Best Achievement in Makeup
Nominees:
-The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008): Greg Cannom
-The Dark Knight (2008): John Caglione Jr., Conor O'Sullivan
-Hellboy II: The Golden Army (2008): Mike Elizalde, Thomas Floutz
This one gets tough b/c every single one of these movies mixes CGI w/ extensive makeup. I can't give it to TDK, solely b/c of The Joker, and I think Brad Pitt is more CGI-ed than he is made up. Perelman sat in that makeup chair for four hours each day to become Big Red.
Best Achievement in Costume Design
Nominees:
Australia (2008): Catherine Martin
-The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008): Jacqueline West
The Duchess (2008): Michael O'Connor
-Milk (2008): Danny Glicker
Revolutionary Road (2008): Albert Wolsky
Could go to Button, but The Duchess plays like a period piece fashion show.
Best Achievement in Art Direction
Nominees:
-Changeling (2008): James J. Murakami, Gary Fettis
-The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008): Donald Graham Burt, Victor J. Zolfo
-The Dark Knight (2008): Nathan Crowley, Peter Lando
The Duchess (2008): Michael Carlin, Rebecca Alleway
Revolutionary Road (2008): Kristi Zea, Debra Schutt
AKA...best production design. I think TDK could upset Button here, but I felt like they used practial locations more often than "constructing their set," and Button recreated several different periods and places as it moved through history.
Best Achievement in Editing
Nominees:
-The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008): Angus Wall, Kirk Baxter
-The Dark Knight (2008): Lee Smith
-Frost/Nixon (2008): Daniel P. Hanley, Mike Hill
-Milk (2008): Elliot Graham
-Slumdog Millionaire (2008): Chris Dickens
Slumdog took the corresponding guild award (ACE), and I noticed the editing choices more in this one. I felt that Button could have been cut better, but I wouldn't be surprised if TDK gets a pity win here in response to its Best Picture snub.
Best Achievement in Cinematography
Nominees:
-Changeling (2008): Tom Stern
-The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008): Claudio Miranda
-The Dark Knight (2008): Wally Pfister
-The Reader (2008): Roger Deakins, Chris Menges
-Slumdog Millionaire (2008): Anthony Dod Mantle
Again going with the guild winner, Although Pfister's chances have signicant traction with TDK. I think its a crime that Roger Deakins will likely get forgotten in this category. The Reader is not his best work, but after eight nominations he should have won by now.
Now into the big ones...writing, acting, directing, and the big chalupa...
Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published
Nominees:
-The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008): Eric Roth, Robin Swicord
-Doubt (2008/I): John Patrick Shanley
-Frost/Nixon (2008): Peter Morgan
-The Reader (2008): David Hare
-Slumdog Millionaire (2008): Simon Beaufoy
If this goes any other way you'll probably be able to fly a plane in my mouth.
Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen
Nominees:
-Frozen River (2008): Courtney Hunt
Happy-Go-Lucky (2008): Mike Leigh
-In Bruges (2008): Martin McDonagh
-Milk (2008): Dustin Lance Black
-WALL·E (2008): Andrew Stanton, Pete Docter, Jim Reardon
This category ends up being a huge consolation prize for the second-best Best Picture nominee in many years (see Diablo Cody for Juno, or Sofia Coppola for Lost in Translation) so that's why I think Milk has the edge. In Bruges & Wall*E are gaining ground, but I don't think they'll pull the upset.
Best Achievement in Directing
Nominees:
-Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire (2008)
-Stephen Daldry for The Reader (2008)
-David Fincher for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008)
-Ron Howard for Frost/Nixon (2008)
-Gus Van Sant for Milk (2008)
Nolan not getting a nomination here was a big surprise. But Boyle is the clear winner. Kinda surprising that this is Fincher's first nomination (for his second-worst movie so far imho).
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
-Amy Adams for Doubt (2008/I)
Penélope Cruz for Vicky Cristina Barcelona (2008)
-Viola Davis for Doubt (2008/I)
-Taraji P. Henson for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008)
-Marisa Tomei for The Wrestler (2008)
This category was all but won by Winslet for the Reader, and they threw her in the bigger category. And now Cruz is the frontrunner. Some are picking Davis to pull a Judi Dench (winning for a perf with such little screentime) but I don't think thats possible for a first-time nominee (Dench had lost in the previous year to Helen Hunt).
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
-Josh Brolin for Milk (2008)
-Robert Downey Jr. for Tropic Thunder (2008)
-Philip Seymour Hoffman for Doubt (2008/I)
-Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight (2008)
Michael Shannon for Revolutionary Road (2008)
This is surest bet all night. What you should take bets on is who gets to accept the award on his behalf. Ledger's dad? His three-year-old daughter? Nolan?... If someone else actually wins, they will have the inside track on the most awkward acceptance speech in Oscar history.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Anne Hathaway for Rachel Getting Married (2008)
-Angelina Jolie for Changeling (2008)
-Melissa Leo for Frozen River (2008)
-Meryl Streep for Doubt (2008/I)
-Kate Winslet for The Reader (2008)
Sixth time's the charm for Winslet. She's the frontrunner for the first time. Hopefully the bad press the movie is getting doesn't hurt her campaign. I think Melissa Leo will steal enough votes from Meryl to ship it to Kate.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees:
-Richard Jenkins for The Visitor (2007/I)
-Frank Langella for Frost/Nixon (2008)
-Sean Penn for Milk (2008)
-Brad Pitt for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008)
-Mickey Rourke for The Wrestler (2008)
This is the toughest one to call. Penn and Rourke are literally neck and neck. In the end I think Rourke elevated his character more than Penn. I could see someone else playing Harvey Milk, but no one else could be Randy "The Ram." I say that all the old Academy voters who go mushy for biopic leads will split their votes between Penn and Langella, and this will clear the way for Rourke to snag the statue.
And finally...
Best Motion Picture of the Year
-The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008): Ceán Chaffin, Kathleen Kennedy, Frank Marshall
-Frost/Nixon (2008): Brian Grazer, Ron Howard, Eric Fellner
-Milk (2008/I): Bruce Cohen, Dan Jinks
-The Reader (2008): Anthony Minghella, Sydney Pollack, Donna Gigliotti, Redmond Morris
-Slumdog Millionaire (2008): Christian Colson
Slumdog is a juggernaut very similarly to what Return of the King was in 2004 (although a clean sweep is highly unlikely). Now that they finally named the nominees for producing The Reader, the nomination makes since. Both Minghella and Pollack, Oscar darlings died while this movie was in production. This nomination is their subtle curtain call.
OK so that's done... many thanks to info I've gathered all over the web most notably at The Envelope: The LA Times Awards Insider, The Oscar Warrior at Comingsoon.net, and Brad Brevet at Rope of Silicon.
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